Rupture de Stock

Empty shelves in the supermarket again. This time, not due to the pandemic induced transport logistical problems but, if the social media gossip was to be believed, the war in Ukraine.

The empty shelves are where the sunflower oil should be and Ukraine is the biggest producer of sunflower oil. Something is clearly amiss with the supply of sunflower oil, so presumably it is indeed the war. Increasingly the gaps on the supermarket shelves are where the biscuits and crisps should be. The shortages started soon after the war got underway. France also produces sunflower oil, but only 500 000 tonnes per annum, and French consumption is 800 000 tonnes per annum. 80% of world supplies come from Ukraine and Russia, with 50% coming from Ukraine alone. 

At my local supermarket on 12 April.

The lack of sunflower oil has caused a knock on effect to other neutral oils, such as canola, which is also starting to dwindle because people are turning to them as an alternative. According to supermarket managers speaking to the press, customers are also buying more oil than they need, in case they can't get it in the future. And apparently Ramadan caused an upsurge in demand.

The latest development is that French food manufacturers have been given permission to use canola or palm oil as a substitute for sunflower oil in their products, without having to change the labelling on the packaging. They have six months to change the ingredients list on their packaging and two months to change the wording on the packaging if they have switch from an organic sunflower oil to a non-organic alternative, or if their packaging claims to be palm oil free but they are now using it.

This is the year to visit in July to see sunflowers!

Sunflower oil is the oil of choice for many industrially produced foods such as pastry, sauces, crisps, mayonnaise, margarine and biscuits. Two thirds of sunflower oil in France is imported from Ukraine. The real problem now is the cessation of maritime transport moving the exported oil. From being one of the cheapest culinary oils, the talk now is of the price of sunflower oil doubling due to its inceasing rarity. Manufacturers who choose to substitute other oils or alternative ingredients for the sunflower oil in their product in order not to increase their prices or continue to manufacture at all are nonetheless stuck with another problem -- getting the ingredient lists on their packaging up to date.

I notice the price of olive oil has gone up a euro or two a litre -- opportunism, coincidence, or market forces?

Right now it is sunflower sowing season in France. Farmers I've seen interviewed are saying they will be increasing the hectares they sow to sunflowers, and the prediction is that an extra 100 000 hectares will be under sunflowers in France this year, despite the fact that the price of seed has doubled to €800 a tonne. It is expected that the number of hectares sown to canola in the autumn for next years harvest  will also increase.